There is a media SHIFT going on. It’s in-process, and we are indeed in the early days. It is not unprecedented, never before seen in the likes of history, etc. There’s been plenty of media shifts in history, with the rise of radio, TV, cable. But it does mean there’s a game of musical chairs going on. And some people currently at the top of the heap won’t remain there, while others angling for a seat will get one (note very importantly, this is taking place among players of the game, between insiders - evangelists love to portrary it as The People taking on The Elite, but scratch that fabrication and you almost always find it’s one faction of the Club against another - if nothing else, because ordinary people don’t have time/money to attend a conference a week!)

But at a certain time during a shift, there comes a point where the new media itself has reached a saturation point, and the number of players at the musical-chair games levels off. The game itself goes on, and there’s always some churn, but there’s a consolidation phase.

Blogging in the *US* seems to have reached that consolation phase. You can see it, the synidcated columnists, err, I mean, the blog networks, fight with each other more intently for audience, since it’s easier to poach share from a competitor than to try to get new members.

In sum, the number of people switching from reading print media to on-line media will increase. The number of people trying to take advantage of this shift (in English) has likely reached near-saturation. What’s likely to happen now is again, consoidation among players, with a few big winners and many others having nothing or nearly so (but we knew that already …).