The sometimes correct prediction-makers at Gartner suggest that blogging will peak in 2007, AP reports:
Could blogging be near the peak of its popularity? The technology gurus at Gartner Inc. believe so. One of the research company’s top 10 predictions for 2007 is that the number of bloggers will level off in the first half of next year at roughly 100 million worldwide.
Heard of Peak Oil? It’s the idea that we’ve topped out on drawing oil from the ground, which is probably going to be true soon. But it’s not the same thing as peak energy, or of peak efficient use of energy or any of the other metrics that mean more in the long run than whether we run out of affordable oil.
Back to blogging: It’s entirely predictable that the number of regular bloggers — that is, people putting text on web pages in reverse chronological order — will level out at some point. Maybe it’ll happen next year.
But what’s not leveling out anytime soon is the number of people who are publishing on the Web. When we include discussion boards, podcasts, videocasts, mashups and all of the other kinds of things folks are doing on their own and in collaboration with others, we can be sure only of one thing: We’re in the early days of this phenomenon. Leveling off? Not for a long time to come.